Are there aliens in our skies, or countries launching drones against targets in the U.S.? At least one short answer is “no, Roberta, that is not a Santa drone swarm over New Jersey.”
To a certain degree this is reminiscent of the original Orson Wells “War of the World’s” radio show. Some listeners misinterpreted it as an actual attack by Martians which lead to some unfortunate things. So far, there is not much actual evidence to justify what appears to be a minor hysteria about drones.
Yes, they can be a problem if directed by people for whom this is surveillance preparatory to doing harm. They are actually being used to that effect in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it has not yet been established that this is the case here and now. “But no one is identifying what we’re seeing!” say some, as if that proves their point.
On TV there is a drum beat that “no one knows” what these things are. This presupposes that the government knows everything about everything. No one in recent memory has noted such God-like powers in any government, though some would welcome a few signs. In general though, government does not, nor does it even try, to surveil everything. Unless there is a serious concern for some manmade or natural event that can cause problems, governments do not take such steps. Among other things, it costs a lot, and it disturbs people.
There are a lot of photos of “drones” on TV (hard to miss them – they’re all over ;-). One interesting thing about these pictures is several seem to have standard FAA navigation lights: red light on the left wingtip, green light on the right, white on the tail and a rotating red beacon on top of the vertical stabilizer. The aviation idea is to make it clear to other pilots how another aircraft is positioned at night. Red on the right would mean it’s coming right at you. These lights beg a question. Why anyone seriously concerned about hiding their presence go to the trouble of adding standard night navigational lights to their vehicle?
Another thought. Pull up Flight Aware (https://www.flightaware.com) and enter “KHGR” in the white bar at the top where it says “All.” You’ll see that there is a lot of air traffic near Hagerstown. Now pull back on the Flight Aware map to see the entire U.S., move over to the East Coast, and move back in to see New Jersey, or any state for that matter. There are small and large planes everywhere. Most people block out aircraft sights and sounds completely most of the time. This is a normal way of sorting out all we see. We simply don’t notice some things unless attention is called to them.
In U.S. airspace, drones are supposed to be flown below 400 feet to keep them out of the traffic at higher levels where all those manned aircraft fly. Up there, the general rule is “see and avoid,” which is problematic for most drones with no pilot aboard. Air Traffic Control provides separation for manned aircraft in instrument conditions or when flying under Instrument Flight Rules. If a manned aircraft is below 400 feet, it is usually either landing or in more trouble than a drone represents.
Drones can go much higher. If someone takes a drone higher, they need authorization and some way to track them so ATC can maintain separation from other aircraft. But of course, that is a regulatory requirement. One would like to assume drone pilots are complying with the regs.
If someone wanted to put a big drone or a swarm of small drones over sensitive sites, you can imagine how they might do it: a) use a drone made from as many non-metallic parts as possible so they would not show on radar, b) don’t comply with regs for night navigation lights or altitude restrictions, c) use Flight Aware or one of several other commercially available products to track other aircraft, d) use some method of their own to keep track of their drone(s), e) maintain their own separation from other aircraft, and f) be completely unseen by anyone.
As long as there is so much speculation, consider this. Even if the government knew about illicit drone operations by unfriendly interests, there are reasons for not sharing what is known. If there are unknown drone operators, perhaps they’re still tracking who is operating drones and where they’re based.
Maybe the government itself is testing such a capability and wants to cover such testing. One might do that by leaking the drone mothership rumor, then testing away while the harmless hysteria provides cover. Maybe the same politicians crying for investigations are being helpful in that way. That’s the problem with fact-free speculation.
Whatever the truth of the drones might be, there are at least two things that can be said. First, there is no reason to assume, as some have asserted, that nothing is known. And second, “The Truth of the Drones” would make a good working movie title.
